I now have it from a third source who understands such things why OBIEE is destined to be a force to be reckoned with. They have done some serious analytics on top of supply chain, and it sells like crazy.
According to my new friend, the fate of Essbase is still up in the air but there are some considerable things to think about. First of all, a 'rationalization' of the platform means that whatever Oracle thinks it can cobble together and sell will set the strategy rather than pure technological merit. Case in point, Oracle's own application hosting offering. Apparently these very profitable packages use Noetics instead of Oracle Warehouse Builder. IE there are standards groups within Oracle that authorize technology standards (see something called 'AIM') that don't even include possibly superior inhouse technologies.
Naturally, we geeks have our own ideas about what pieces and parts work best together, but that doesn't change Oracle's or any enterprise company's salesforce's ability to assimilate a platform of technologies and make a strong case. Remember Oracle was the company that made billions promising first as Oracle and then figuring out how after the deal was done. Nobody has patience for that any longer, so a platform that can be sold and is marketed as a solution is better than the best architected solution that has no marketing and only selling. Good enough is good enough, and that is why Essbase is in the Oracle middle tier where things are swappable.
'Operational analytics' was my answer, but the fact is on a big enough hardware with a decent enough star, you can get that. What you cannot get is the pure technical goodness of multiuser concurrent read-write multidimensional access with full security out of the box. How much of BPM needs that? Some magical percentage. How much of 'operational analytics' needs that? Some magical percentage. How much of the whole BI market needs that? Some magical percentage. Question is, who is addressing that market, and will it fall to custom apps only?
My angle would be to sell an analytic platform for its own sake. The path to making Essbasable data marts in the world of 'subject-specific data warehouses' seems obvious to me. All the parts are there, DIM/INFA, MDM of any sort, Essbase and the panoply of System 9 front-ends. At the very least, I could do that bizdev (hint, hint) and extend the usefulness of an Oracle Analytic Tier for every repository based enterprise application out there. But I suspect that the NQuire people who did that for Siebel are already hip to that game - the question is which technology makes a more cost effective play. I think Essbase has the technical edge, but OBIEE has the marketing and sales edge. Again, a well-marketed solution sells better than a well-built one with no sales support. But an OEM product requires more thought, and that's where Essbase can destroy, ahem, the competition.
Speaking of which, MSFT is announcing it plans to sell a billion dollars of Sharepoint this year. A non-trivial market if I ever heard of one.